Petroleum Economist
November 2023
The November issue of Petroleum Economist is out now!
CCUS: From scepticism to solutions
Technology-neutrality, collaboration and lessons from existing projects will help the industry achieve the large-scale growth the world needs
BlackRock backs DAC with $550m Stratos deal
World’s largest fund manager forms joint venture with Occidental to drive forward Texas project
Petchems Report: Asia ramps up petchems production
India and China are both looking to substantially boost their petchems capacities out to 2030
US government backs BP’s Whiting storage project
DOE offers $98m to CO₂ storage project centred on oil major’s largest refinery
Petchems Report: Middle East makes most of feedstock advantage
Industrialisation and urbanization will drive the region’s petchems production as it makes the most of abundant feedstock, while Africa also looks to expand capacity
Petchems Report: US a petchems hotbed while Europe struggles
Low-cost ethane has made the US a premier destination for petchems investments, while in Europe the industry faces economic headwinds
Align the VCM with internal carbon pricing
Companies can boost confidence in the voluntary market by using their internal carbon prices as reference points against which to measure the implied climate contribution of their purchased offsets
Adnoc and Santos collaborate on Asia-Pacific CCS
Strategic alliance includes potential development of CO₂ shipping and transportation infrastructure network in the region
Petchems Report: Oil’s understated driver of long-term demand
Ethylene is forecast to account for a substantial market share in the petrochemical industry
Yara and Northern Lights in major cross-border carbon deal
Shipment of CO₂ from Dutch ammonia plant to Norwegian storage site will require bilateral agreement at government level
Outlook 2024: The need for ambition and more action on the energy transition in tougher times
Progress in decarbonisation but significant challenges lie ahead
‘Peace pipeline’ appears dead
Fresh opposition from the US looks likely to be the final nail in the coffin for the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan connection
Outlook 2024: Negative energy pricing strategies to capitalise on flexibility assets
Negative pricing has become more frequent in European energy markets, and GB markets are now experiencing a similar increase
Leaders
Tellurian eyes first LNG late 2027
The integrated developer remains bullish despite previous delays
Asian gas industry group counts on rising demand
Regional industry body ANGEA remains bullish about Asia's adoption of gas and LNG, despite elevated prices and logistical challenges
Energy Council sees worsening underinvestment in oil and gas
But CEO Miller says surge in Middle East and Asia funding, creative solutions and ‘nuanced’ approach to transition offer hope
Forward Intelligence
Longboat splits attention between Norway and Malaysia
CEO Helge Hammer speaks to Petroleum Economist about the company’s recent activities and its expansion plans
US LNG expansion bolsters Europe, but risks remain
The US continues to play an increasingly pivotal role in the LNG market, but short- and medium-term risks and uncertainties persist
IEA and OPEC diverge on oil outlook
There is a gulf between the two bodies when it comes to their medium-term forecasts
In Depth
Product demand continues to rise
Gasoline and diesel demand will remain stagnant, but biofuels production is set to expand significantly to 2030
Asia leads the way on capacity buildout
The region is the global leader in active refining projects, with most based in India and China
EU’s net-zero goals boost biofuels
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended trade flows in the region, while Europe’s net-zero commitments have boosted biofuels investment
Major projects under way in Middle East
Countries in the region are expanding plants and building grassroots facilities, with countries in Africa keen to cut their fuel import bills
American refiners target biofuels
Biofuels are leading the way in the US as the region looks to the future with renewable fuels
Letters
Letter from the UAE: A Goldilocks oil price?
OPEC’s calls for higher prices to lure investment stand at odds with consumer nations’ difficulties with inflation and high energy costs
Letter from the US: OPEC+ faces US merger threat
The ‘megaproducers’ on the rise following ExxonMobil deal will be less susceptible to OPEC pressure
Letter on carbon: Betting on Berlin
Europe’s CCUS sector needs the German government to deliver on its promise of an ambitious carbon management strategy
Americas
ExxonMobil deal will transform shale and beyond
The major’s $60bn Pioneer purchase signals long-term view of oil demand and a mature consolidated shale industry
Alaska’s tentative upstream revival
The war in Ukraine has given new impetus to oil and gas projects in the US’ most northerly state, but two proposed LNG projects may still struggle to reach FID
Gas remains the workhorse of the Texas grid
Much has been made about the expansion of wind and solar power, but in the hottest days of August, Texans depended on gas to avert rolling blackouts
The Trans Mountain fiasco
A recent decision by Canada’s energy regulator will see the pipeline’s expansion project avoid yet more additional costs, but it remains blighted by poor economics
Venezuela’s limited oil sanctions relief
Washington’s move to ease restrictions on Caracas will likely have a more meaningful impact on US refiners than global crude markets
Asia Pacific
Muted winter LNG outlook for NE Asia
Seasonal temperatures will prove critical, but the LNG demand prospects for China, Japan and South Korea are currently soft
China stalls on Power of Siberia 2
Beijing appears willing to use Moscow’s isolation to its advantage
China gas policy focuses on energy security
The revised Gas Utilisation Policy refines Beijing’s policies for a market that has doubled in size since 2012
Timing is all on India's fuel price cuts
With elections looming, the government must decide when to take the sting out of high oil prices
Thai oil production poised for modest rebound
Efforts by independents and NOC PTTEP will help boost production this year, but the sector is increasingly mature
Papua LNG targets 2024 FID
The Pacific nation’s second liquefaction development will overlap significantly with the existing PNG LNG project
Chevron Australia averts renewed strikes
But the gas markets remain jittery amid a range of other risk factors
EMEA
The Russian price cap myth
It is time to stop pretending that there is a ‘price cap’ on Russian petroleum exports
Qatar ramps up LNG marketing as NFE work begins
Construction of the world’s largest-ever LNG export project is underway, but it has a long way to go to secure deals for 48mt/yr of new capacity
Nigeria adapts to end of fuel subsidies
The withdrawal of discounts has already severely impacted domestic product demand and bolstered long-stalled refinery refurbishment projects
Nigeria grapples with oil theft surge
The end of government fuel subsidies has spurred the theft of even more crude to feed the country’s illegal refineries
Nigerian companies assume growing oil and gas sector role
Law firm Olaniwun Ajayi grants Petroleum Economist detailed insight into Nigeria’s changing oil and gas landscape
Libya’s upstream promise still hamstrung by instability
But the troubled north African nation is not short of international investment interest
Carbon Economist
EU ETS prices will rise with 90% 2040 GHG target
Incoming EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has defended the target, which has bullish implications for EU ETS prices
Taiwan joins Asian carbon trading push
Newly launched Taiwan Carbon Solution Exchange is expected to enable companies to trade in both domestic and international credits
UAE gets behind carbon markets
Investment in African offsets and ambitions to create a trading hub demonstrate Mideast Gulf state’s commitment to growing markets
Digital Exclusives
US upstream shows restraint
The disciplined spending trend seen in 2023 is likely to continue into 2024