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Petroleum Economist

The economic recovery that will – eventually – boost oil prices seems ever more distant. Last week, the US government said GDP contracted by a worse-than-expected 6.2% in the fourth quarter; this week, US insurer AIG recorded the biggest quarterly loss in US history – $61.7bn.
PRESIDENT Evo Morales is making some headway with efforts to bolster dwindling foreign investment in the country's energy sector. A decade ago, Bolivia was one of South America's most exciting exploration plays, but a mass exodus of Western companies occurred three years ago when the leftist government nationalised the hydrocarbons industry and made investment terms much less favourable.
With production curtailed by its Opec quota, the long-planned licensing round on ice and the president recently back from asking China for another loan, the Angola of 2009 is very different from the rapidly expanding producer of the past 10 years
With the US jobless total rising, car sales slumping and stock markets at 12-year lows, the flow of bad economic and financial news continues unabated. Yet oil prices have held above $40/b. The Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES) says the oil market "appears to have developed a resistance to the bad news continuing to emerge from the banking sector and the dire state of the global economy".
OPEC has shrugged off the International Energy Agency's (IEA) calls for it to maintain upstream investment through the economic downturn. The producer organisation cannot invest in any new additional capacity with prices at present levels, the cartel's secretary general, Abdullah Salem El-Badri, said at a conference in Vienna on Wednesday.
FACED with a shortfall in energy supply and the need to boost economic activity during the recession, the country has commissioned three new gas-fired power stations. They will add nearly 4 gigawatts (GW) of capacity to the grid – the largest increase to be announced by the government at one time for more than two decades.
Some producers found themselves carried away with the euphoria of last year's oil-market rally. They talked with gay abandon of prices reaching $200 a barrel oil before 2008 was out; Gazprom's chief executive, Alexei Miller, said he thought oil would reach $250/b in 2009. So much for the forecasts of the cognoscenti; as demand collapsed, so did prices.
GAS NATURAL should complete its acquisition of Unión Fenosa this month – its third attempt in five years to buy a power company. Analysts say the industrial logic of the deal is robust. Gas Natural's gas assets and Unión Fenosa's electricity assets are a natural fit; combining them should enable the gas supplier to lower its dependence on gas sales and to add value to its gas-supply operations through power generation.
BG Group bought control of Pure Energy last month, giving it another crucial foothold in the country's burgeoning coal-seam gas (CSG) sector. BG is already the largest of several gas developers hoping to base new liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports on Queensland's growing CSG reserves.
OIL PRICES are in retreat again this week, falling back below $50 a barrel in the wake of more worries about the future of the global economy. The latest sell off, hitting equity markets as well as commodities, followed US President Barak Obama's tough stance on a new bailout for automakers GM and Chrysler.
STOP going on about renewables. They're a distraction from the real business of supplying energy: they lack the energy density and user friendliness of petroleum, which will continue to make an unmatched contribution to the smooth running of society.