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Petroleum Economist

WHEN politicians, regulators and industry executives gathered at the mid-2008 World Petroleum Congress (WPC) in Madrid, US light crude futures were trading at $143 a barrel. What a different event it would have been a few months later
Gas supplies from Russia to Europe have been cut dramatically, amid a deteriorating commercial dispute between Russia's Gazprom and Ukraine's state-owned energy firm, Naftogaz. Flows are "seven-times less than normal", according to Gazprom's deputy chief executive, Alexander Medvedev, because of a unilateral decision by Ukraine to close three pipelines feeding the European market.
OIL PRICES firmed by about 2% in London on Tuesday as Opec ministers emphasised their efforts to bring "balance" to the oil market. By mid-afternoon, the front-month Brent contract in London was trading at just over $44/b. However, wider worries about the global economy continue to undermine sentiment.
Flows of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine resumed today after a two-week interruption caused by a contractual dispute between Russia and Ukraine. Under the terms of a new contract, Ukrainian energy company Naftogaz will pay $360/'000 cubic metres of gas (cm) in first-quarter 2009 – double the $179.50/'000 cm it paid last year. However, the price should fall later in the year, in line with lower oil prices.
Oil prices slumped on Tuesday, reversing a brief and unconvincing early rally. Talk that Opec output cuts may be starting to reduce excess oil supply pushed crude futures higher as trade began. A bout of cold weather provided support too.
THE JUBILEE oilfield, already described by Tullow Oil, the operator, as a world-class reservoir and under development for start-up in October next year, has been shown to be larger than expected. Results last month from two "bold step-out" wells, one in Kosmos' licence and one in Tullow's, have shown extensions to the southeast and to the northwest, while also confirming the excellent production characteristics of the reservoir.