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Petroleum Economist

January's alarming and – for some – catastrophic contractual dispute between Russia and Ukraine will compel Europe to make greater efforts to diversify its natural gas supplies and to move away from gas as an energy source
Rising oil inventories and weak demand kept oil prices under pressure last month. On 21 January, Brent March futures were just below $44/b and the March WTI contract was trading at around a $2/b discount to Brent
Asia is back on the radar screen of Canadian pipeline firms, as oil and gas producers look beyond their traditional US export markets. Companies are concerned that planned environmental measures from US President Barack Obama's administration will restrict the flow of oil-sands-derived crude to the US
With both Opec and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting a steep fall in oil demand in 2009, Saudi Arabia is cajoling its fellow Opec producers to stick to their quotas. The kingdom has threatened to make large unilateral cuts in output if others fail to live up to their word
The global economic downturn is causing havoc in oil markets. Last month, the International Energy Agency (IEA) again revised its forecast demand figures downwards, noting that stocks are at record levels. The crude build in tanks at Cushing, Oklahoma, is now so large that WTI's role as an international benchmark is also under threat
The nightmare combination of overextended exploration companies, falling oil prices and a drying-up of credit found its first victim when Canada's Oilexco took its wholly owned UK subsidiary, Oilexco North Sea, to the administrators last month
CRUDE oil futures in London were hovering at around $44/b on Tuesday afternoon, little changed from Monday, as the market awaited direction from stocks figures to be released in the US on Wednesday morning. In New York, the front-month contract for light sweet crude oil retained its sharp discount to London's Brent, trading at around $40/b.
A CONSORTIUM of 26 corporations and five environmental groups has asked federal policymakers to enact what it terms as "a regulated economy-wide, market-driven approach to climate protection." In testimony before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on 15 January, representatives of the US Climate Action Partnership (Uscap) presented A Blueprint for Legislative Action – a detailed plan for reducing greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions by 80% from 2005 levels by 2050, which, it says, are "aggressive emissions-reduction targets that can be achieved at manageable costs to the economy."
Opec's efforts to support oil prices are, so far, failing to gain traction. Oil futures remain under severe downward pressure: on Wednesday, US light crude futures for March delivery, although up by $0.22 a barrel on the day, were trading at $35.15/b.
Oil prices are holding steady at around $40 a barrel despite further falls in the world's main stock indices. But given the relentless flow of bad economic news and bearish demand forecasts, oil's chances of a recovery remain remote. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its lowest level for 12 years, undermined by growing concerns about the effectiveness of the US' economic stimulus and bank-rescue strategy. Japanese shares were close to a 26-year low and European stocks are also continuing to fall.